Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Asks Modelers to Address Deficiencies By January 7, 2015; Flood Standards Committee Meets
Dec 16, 2014
The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (“FCHLPM”) met in Tallahassee today, December 16, 2014.
Chaired by Dr. Lorilee Medders, the FCHLPM began the process of reviewing hurricane loss model submissions and voting on each according to the FCHLPM’s Standards and Acceptability Process for 2013 (“Standards”).
Following discussion on each model’s incorporation of the Standards, all were approved for continued review, with each modeler being asked to respond to identified deficiencies by January 7, 2015.
Among the models reviewed included Risk Management Solutions’ (RMS) North Atlantic Hurricane Model RiskLink 15.0 (Build 1625) and the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, the latter of which is managed by Florida International University.
Florida Office of Insurance Regulation Actuary Bob Lee requested all of the modelers to be consistent in their use of reinforced masonry and screen enclosures as factors in loss projection.
Various requests for on-site visits to modelers by the FCHLPM’s Professional Team were approved.
After the Standards review, the FCHLPM convened its Flood Standards Development Committee (“Committee”).
Led by Dr. Jack Nicholson, the Committee discussed several items relating to the General Flood Standards working draft, which was last reviewed on November 14, 2014. Modelers’ subsequent feedback yielded technical revisions and various other changes. Also, it was noted that storm surge models should be evaluated in conjunction with hurricane loss models, not their flood counterparts.
The Committee discussed a working draft of the Meteorological/Hydrological Standards and the process that was used to develop them. The Meteorological/Hydrological Standards include:
- Flood event data sources
- Flood parameters and characteristics
- Flood probabilities
- Flood profile structure
- Modeling of natural and man-made flood mitigation and prevention measures
- Modeling for the failure of flood mitigation or prevention measures
- Logical relationships of flood characteristics
- Annual flood occurrence rates by county
- Maps of flood profiles by return period
Among the concepts debated was the application of “pluvial” versus “fluvial” flooding, although a conclusion on the merits of each was not reached before the Committee adjourned.
A revised draft of the General Flood Standards will be published shortly.
To access the meeting materials, click here.
The Committee is next scheduled to meet on January 29, 2015, during which members are expected to address any outstanding issues relating to the General Flood Standards and Meteorological/Hydrological Flood Standards.
If time permits, the Vulnerability Flood Standards will be discussed.
Should you have any comments or questions, please contact Colodny Fass.
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