A Fla. Hurricane Forecast Sees Tiny Increase In Risk

Feb 13, 2009

National Underwriter–February 13, 2009

NU Online News Service

A new report predicting hurricane landfall rates finds slightly decreased chances of a strike on the Florida coastline and a bit less for U.S. Southeast shores as well.

The CAT-i report is the second Guy Carpenter ForeCat update of 2009 produced with WSI Corporation, Andover, Mass.

According to the February update, the Texas and Louisiana coastline along the Gulf of Mexico remains most vulnerable to tropical cyclones coming shore in the United States in 2009.

As it did in January, the firm said it puts a rate of 0.65 for hurricane activity in the Gulf-a figure representing the mean number of landfalling tropical cyclones in that region for the forthcoming 2009 hurricane season (compared to the 1951-2007 average landfall rate of 0.66).

For the Southeast region running from the Florida border to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, the firm said there is a forecast 0.43 mean rate of landfall (higher than the long-term average of 0.41). In January the expectation was for a higher 0.50 mean rate of landfall.

The entire Florida coastline now is judged to have a mean landfall rate of 0.29 compared with the January forecast of 0.36, compared to an average landfall rate for that area of 0.49.

For the Northeast coast from Cape Hatteras to Maine, the forecast landfall rate was unchanged at 0.30. That rate is slightly higher than the average of 0.29.

WSI’s last Atlantic hurricane forecast predicted 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes will develop in 2009.